As the year draws to a close and 2019 is in view, the thoughts of many are drawn to…2020. Yes, it’s almost time for many to think about running for President. But, what about the current holder of the office? When asked what they think is most likely, almost two in five Americans (38%) say President Trump is re-elected in November, 2020 while almost the same number (37%) say he loses re-election. One-quarter (25%), however, say it is most likely he leaves office before November of 2020. This is from a survey we conducted of 2,174 U.S. adults, 18 and older between December 10 and 12, 2018.
Not surprisingly, there is a partisan difference. Seven in ten Republicans (70%) say the President will be re-elected while one in five (21%) say he will lose re-election and one in ten (9%) say he will leave office early. Almost half of Democrats (47%) say he will lose re-election, over one-third (37%) say he will leave office early and over one in ten (15%) say the President will be re-elected. Among Independents, over two in five (42%) say he will lose re-election, three in ten (30%) say the President will be re-elected and almost three in ten (28%) say he will leave office early.
Taking a step back and looking at the year that is coming to a close, almost three in five Americans (58%) say they are happy about 2018 ending while one-third (32%) are neither happy nor sad and one in ten (9%) are sad. 2018 is also the year of some confusing emotions. Three in five Americans (59%) say looking back, 2018 wasn’t as bad as they thought it was but that differs by party with seven in ten Republicans saying this versus just over half of Democrats (70% vs. 53%). But, over two in five (44%) say when they think about this past year, they felt angry a lot of the time. Again, there is a political party difference with half of Democrats saying this compared to over one-third of Republicans (51% vs. 36%).
The turning of the calendar also means a chance to look ahead. Two-thirds (65%) say, taking everything into account, 2019 will be better than 2018, over one-quarter (27%) say it will be about the same and one in ten (9%) say it will be worse. Yet, over half of Americans (56%) say they are nervous about what 2019 will bring, with Democrats being more nervous than Republicans (60% vs. 50%).
Last year, over three in five Americans (63%) said sometimes, they wondered if we are part of a reality show for another planet. This year, over half (53%) wonder this with three in five Democrats (59%) and almost half of Republicans (47%) saying we might be TV fodder for aliens. So, buckle up as ratings may be taking a hit and the alien producers might be about to inject something crazy to shake it up!
Regina Corso Consulting is a communications focused market research and insights firm. Led by the nation’s premier public release expert, Regina Corso, our team is made up of seasoned research and communications professionals who deliver strategic and creative research to equip our clients with actionable data for communications programs. We conduct research for media outreach efforts, local media tours, social and digital campaigns, and thought leadership efforts. For more information, please visit ReginaCorsoConsulting.com.